AIB at $0.96: the milestone model spans $0.38 bear to $7.06 bull, with a $2.82 base
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“ticker aib - make a bull base and bear valuation model”
Three valuation scenarios for AIB Data Centers Inc. (NYSE American: AIB), dated 27 October 2026, built on company-reported contracted megawatts and per-MW equity multiples against the $0.96 reference price of 24 October 2026. The 17 underlying evidence rows come from 9 independent hosts; no single host backs more than 29% of them.
Implied share price by scenario vs the $0.96 reference
Horizontal bars: implied price per share, US$. Dashed line: $0.96 reference close (24 Oct 2026). Colour marks the case: red bear, blue base, green bull. Hover a bar for MW, multiple and implied equity value.
Bear $0.38 (−60%) — 65 MW at $0.5m/MW: execution stalls near the original contracted-power footprint and the market assigns a distressed early-stage multiple.
lifestyle.awe.sm
Base $2.82 (+194%) — 120 MW at $2m/MW, the company-cited recent per-MW value, still far below mature peers; anchored by the binding 12-year, 50 MW Nebius agreement at CLT1.
newsbreak.com
Bull $7.06 (+635%) — 120 MW at $5m/MW, deliberately only half of management's cited ~$10m/MW Core Scientific contracted-capacity reference.
thetechcapital.com
Dilution sensitivity — every additional 10m diluted shares beyond the modeled 85m cuts the base target from ~$2.82 to ~$2.53 and the bull from ~$7.06 to ~$6.32.
sec.gov
Method and evidence
Why asset/milestone, not DCF
AIB is an early-stage data-center developer with rapidly changing capital needs and no stable, mature cash-flow base, so each case values recognized contracted MW at an equity value per MW and divides by 85m diluted shares — a conservative assumption versus the 75,979,466 shares reported at June 30, allowing roughly 12% for dilution. At $0.96 the reference market cap is about $72.9m on reported shares, $81.6m on modeled diluted shares.
Reported operating facts (separate from assumptions)
- Q2: 65 MW contracted power, $52.8m cash, no traditional debt.
- October: management reported 120 MW of power under contract.
- Binding 12-year Nebius agreement covers 50 MW at CLT1.
- Management expects customer prepayments, project debt and preferred equity to fund much of initial development — financing and execution remain prospective.
Assumption flag. The $0.5m / $2m / $5m per-MW multiples are analyst assumptions informed by company-reported reference points — about $2m per energized operating MW in July 2026, under $1m per contracted MW in October 2026, and management's comparison of Core Scientific near $10m per contracted MW. These peer references are company-selected and not independently standardized. A MW-based equity valuation can overstate common equity if project-level debt or preferred capital becomes large: treat this as a milestone framework, not precision fair value or investment advice. Key risks: financing not yet closed, construction and timing, customer concentration, the gap between contracted power and energized revenue-producing capacity, potential preferred/project-debt claims, dilution, and extreme micro-cap volatility.
Scenario table
| Case | MW | $m / MW | Implied equity $m | Implied price | vs $0.96 | Thesis | Source |
|---|
Source audit — 9 hosts behind 17 evidence rows
No single host backs more than half the rows; the largest, a press-release syndicator, carries 29.4%. SEC filings back the share count and balance-sheet facts.
Asset/milestone valuation model for AIB Data Centers (NYSE American: AIB), dated 27 Oct 2026. 3 scenario rows (recognized contracted MW × equity value per MW ÷ 85m diluted shares) plus a 17-row source audit across 9 hosts. Implied price in US$ per share; upside/downside vs the $0.96 close of 24 Oct 2026. Per-MW multiples are analyst assumptions, not reported fair values; duplicate audit rows per host were collapsed to one line for space.