Cross-reference the lost opportunity cost of Alberta's economic growth against the onset of the separatist movement, with a conservative estimate on the low end and the maximum potential economic loss extrapolated on the high end.
Update the estimates with the CBC article on Keith Wilson, Let Alberta Decide, and the Alberta Transition Council white paper.
Eleven monetary scenarios, in billions of Canadian dollars, drawn from four independent source hosts (no single URL backs more than 36.4% of rows): advocacy claims and political estimates in the new CBC article, modelled Calgary Chamber / University of Calgary figures, a commissioned five-year transition range, and mechanical 20-year extrapolations. The Transition Council white paper itself is still unreleased, so no verified council estimate exists. Research current through 29 September 2026.
| Scenario | Measure | Amount (C$B) | Horizon | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advocacy estimate | Transition/start-up cost | C$6B | One-time | Alberta Prosperity Project estimate cited in the CBC article. | cbc.ca |
| the original Calgary Chamber analysis | One-year investment opportunity cost | C$10–15B | 1 year | University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe modelled the potential economic impact of Alberta secession; the benchmark is the United Kingdom's experience following Brexit, with separation assumed to raise trade costs by | calgarychamber.com |
| Premier estimate | Annual cost after separation | up to C$50B | Annual | Premier Danielle Smith estimate cited in the CBC article. | cbc.ca |
| an independent news cross-check | Annual economic output loss | C$41–62B | Annual | Modelling in which separation increases trade costs, which lowers GDP per capita and in turn reduces local employment, shrinking the province's economy; the report is by economist Trevor Tombe, commissioned by the Calgar | calgaryherald.com |
| the original Calgary Chamber analysis | Annual economic output loss | C$62B | Annual | University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe modelled the potential economic impact of Alberta secession; the benchmark is the United Kingdom's experience following Brexit, with separation assumed to raise trade costs by | calgarychamber.com |
| the requested CBC update | Fiscal and employment exposure | up to C$62B | — | Study by University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe; trade costs assumed to rise by five to eight per cent, benchmarked to the range the United Kingdom has seen since its withdrawal from the European Union | cbc.ca |
| Commissioned separation-cost range | Five-year transition-cost range | C$50–170B | 5 years | Direct reported range from the University of Calgary commissioned study; do not add mechanically to GDP-gap estimates because concepts may overlap. | calgaryherald.com |
| Premier estimate | Transition/start-up cost | C$400B | One-time | Premier Danielle Smith estimate cited in the CBC article. | cbc.ca |
| Updated persistent-loss extrapolation | Twenty-year cumulative output loss | C$1026.5–1552.27B | 20 years | The directly reported annual C$41–62B range is held constant as a share of a baseline growing 2.3% yearly, then summed for 20 years. | calgarychamber.com |
| High: cumulative foregone GDP | Prior difficult-separation stress test | up to C$1605.32B | 20 years | Upper stress test: 2026 nominal GDP grows 2.3% yearly; GDP gap rises linearly from zero to 10.1% in year 5 and 16.2% in year 20. It is not a forecast and excludes separate transition costs to avoid double counting. | fortbison.substack.com |
| Outer-envelope arithmetic | Twenty-year transition plus recurring cost | up to C$1651.83B | 20 years | Adds the cited C$400B transition estimate to 20 years of the cited C$50B annual price tag, escalating the annual amount by 2.3% per year. | cbc.ca |
Data: 11 monetary scenarios for the economic cost of Alberta separation, compiled from CBC, Calgary Chamber of Commerce, Calgary Herald and Fort Bison sources; research current through 2026-09-29. Amounts are billions of nominal Canadian dollars; horizons differ (one-time, annual, 5-year, 20-year cumulative) and estimates overlap, so they must not be summed. Twenty-year figures are undiscounted stress extrapolations, not forecasts or present values. Basis text in the table is truncated for space; the ladder shows 8 headline scenarios, the table all 11.