BRUN scenarios span $3.58 to $47.71 a share; the probability-weighted target is $22.66, 173% above today's $8.306
Asked:
“ticker brun - make a bull base and bear valuation model”
Three scenarios — bear, base, bull — for Boost Run Inc. (Nasdaq: BRUN) as of 2026-10-27, each built on an FY2027 revenue assumption and an equity-value-to-revenue multiple over 83.845 million Class A plus Class B shares. Values are USD per share and USD millions, drawn from MarketBeat, Yahoo Finance, Kalkine and StockTitan.
Base case $19.68 (+136.9%): BRUN exits 2026 near its $400M ARR goal and converts backlog into roughly $550M FY2027 revenue at a 3.0× equity multiple —
finance.yahoo.comBear case $3.58 (−56.9%): guidance is missed and capital intensity compresses the multiple to 1.0× on $300M revenue —
marketbeat.comBull case $47.71 (+474.4%): rapid funded deployment converts the $1.9B contracted book into $800M revenue at a 5.0× premium multiple —
stocktitan.netExecution risk is unusually high: Q2 2026 revenue was $31.1M (+270% y/y) against a $75.0M GAAP net loss, with $120.2M unrestricted cash —
kalkine.com
Scenario assumptions
| Scenario | Probability | FY2027 revenue ($M) | Equity multiple (×) | Implied equity value ($M) | Target ($/sh) | Upside | Thesis | Source |
Implied equity value = FY2027 revenue × equity revenue multiple · Target price = implied equity value ÷ 83.845M diluted shares
Fundamentals and risk
- Reference price (2026-10-27)$8.306
- Diluted shares (Class A + B)83.845M
- Q2 2026 revenue$31.1M, +270% y/y
- Q2 2026 GAAP net loss$75.0M
- June 2026 ARR$145M
- Exit-2026 ARR guidance$400M
- Contracted revenue$1.9B
- Quarter-end unrestricted cash$120.2M
The gap between a $75.0M quarterly loss and $120.2M of cash means financing risk directly shapes which scenario is reachable: dilution or project debt could change the share count and multiple assumed here.
Sensitivity warning. This is an equity-value-to-revenue framework, not EV/revenue: complete, current project-level debt and lease obligations could not be sufficiently resolved to compute enterprise value. Outputs are highly sensitive to the revenue and multiple assumptions — a one-turn change in the base multiple moves the target by roughly $6.56 per share — and should not be treated as precise intrinsic values.
Not investment advice. This model is illustrative scenario analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Method: 3 scenario rows (bear/base/bull) for Boost Run Inc. (Nasdaq: BRUN) built 2026-10-27 from MarketBeat, Yahoo Finance, Kalkine and StockTitan pages. Each target price measures FY2027 revenue × an assumed equity-value/revenue multiple ÷ 83.845M diluted shares, in USD; probability weights are 25/50/25. Project-level debt and leases were unresolved, so an EV framework was cut.