Where gun ownership is higher, firearm death rates run higher too — r = 0.776 across the 50 states

Asked:

“how does gun ownership map to gun deaths across the US? Do regions with more guns have more gun deaths?”

All 50 states, comparing estimated household gun ownership (a survey-based composite of household measures) with the CDC's 2024 age-adjusted firearm death rate per 100,000 people. Rates, not raw counts, are used so small and large states compare fairly. D.C. is excluded.

Ownership vs firearm deaths, state by state

Each dot is a state, coloured by Census region. The line is a least-squares fit. Hover a dot for exact values.

The same pattern on the map

Bivariate view: blue deepens with ownership, red deepens with death rate; dark purple marks the high-high states. Hover a state for its values.

Pale = low on both · blue = more guns, fewer deaths · red = fewer guns, more deaths · purple = high on both

Deaths climb across ownership quartiles

Mean firearm deaths per 100k by state ownership quartile.

Regions: South deadliest, West owns most

Unweighted state averages by Census region.

The gradient is monotonic: mean deaths per 100k rise 8.20 → 14.14 → 16.05 → 20.20 from the lowest to the highest ownership quartile. pewresearch.org

The South averages 17.76 deaths per 100k on 39.87% ownership — deadlier than the West’s 16.08 despite the West’s slightly higher 40.95% ownership. pewresearch.org

The Northeast sits far below the rest: 21.50% ownership and 7.47 deaths per 100k on average. gunfacts.info

Ownership estimates are older survey composites while death rates are from 2024 — a timing mismatch to keep in mind; the association is ecological, not proof of cause. gunfacts.info

All 50 states

Click a header to sort.

State	Region	Ownership %	Deaths /100k (2024)	Quartile	Sources

Analytic table of 50 U.S. states (D.C. excluded). Outcome: CDC 2024 age-adjusted firearm death rate per 100,000 (all intents — suicide, homicide, accident, undetermined), via Pew Research. Exposure: composite “Average (households)” gun-ownership estimate from survey measures including 2013 and 2002 household figures, via Gun Facts — note the timing mismatch with the 2024 outcome. Quartile and region averages and the national Pearson r (0.776) were supplied precomputed. Ecological association; poverty, urbanicity, demographics, policy and care access also vary geographically.

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