El-Sayed leads Rogers in all four September polls — by 2 to 7 points — but Michigan’s Senate race is far from settled
Asked:
“What's happening with the senate race in Michigan”
As of September 29, 2026, this report covers 18 source-linked rows on Michigan’s open U.S. Senate race for retiring Sen. Gary Peters’s seat: four distinct September polls (one Emerson survey appears three times via syndication and is shown once), two forecaster calls, eight campaign developments, and the state’s official certified ballot of six candidates.
Four September polls, one direction: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Republican Mike Rogers
El-Sayed (D)Rogers (R) · bar labels show share of likely voters; the gap is the margin
What the chart cannot say
Forecasters see an edge, not a lock
Sabato’s Crystal Ball · Sept 25
Leans Democratic
Polling has generally given El-Sayed a narrow advantage over Rogers. newsweek.com
Decision Desk HQ · Sept 20
El-Sayed 67% · Rogers 33%
“This one is closer than it should be if you’re the Republicans and want to keep the Senate.” thehill.com
What’s driving the race
The official ballot
Six candidates are certified for the November 3, 2026 ballot, per the Washtenaw County Clerk’s official candidate list updated September 11, 2026 (content.civicplus.com):
Abdul El-Sayed — Democratic (filed via petitions 4/14/2026)
Mike Rogers — Republican (filed via petitions 4/17/2026)
Walter P. Kristy — Natural Law (convention 8/31/2026)
Every row in the data
Section
Date
Item
El-Sayed margin
Source
Data: 18 source-linked rows on Michigan’s 2026 U.S. Senate race collected through September 29, 2026 — 7 poll rows (the September 12–14 Emerson/Nexstar survey is syndicated across three rows and charted once), 2 forecasts, 8 developments, 1 official ballot record. Poll percentages are shares of likely voters; margin is El-Sayed minus Rogers in points. Duplicate Emerson syndications are kept in the table but excluded from the chart.