Pick Abdul El-Sayed: 8 of 10 Election-Day sources favor him over Mike Rogers

Asked:

“who's more likely to win? mike rogers or Abdul El-Sayed? you must pick 1.”

Ten source snapshots — one per independent host — taken on or just before Election Day, November 3, 2026, covering the Michigan Senate race. They mix final polls and prediction-market prices: the RealClearPolling average cited by Action Network has El-Sayed up 5.3 points, market pricing there implies roughly 80% for El-Sayed versus 21% for Rogers, and two hosts dissent in Rogers’s favor. Polls and market odds are forecasts, not results.

Each bar is one source. Bars right of zero favor El-Sayed, left favor Rogers; length is the gap between the two candidates’ cited values (poll points or probability points, as that source measures them — scales differ by source). Moneywise quotes Kalshi dollar prices ($1.24 El-Sayed vs $4.27 Rogers, lower = favorite), so its bar shows direction only. Hover or tap a bar for the exact values.

Prediction markets price the race strongly for El-Sayed: ~80% implied probability versus ~21% for Rogers on Election Day — actionnetwork.com

Final polls cited span a 1-point race to an 11-point El-Sayed lead; The Hill cites El-Sayed 53% to Rogers 42% — thehill.com

Kalshi users have wagered $33 million on this race, and most bets back El-Sayed ($1.24 vs $4.27 contract pricing) — moneywise.com

The dissent is real but a minority: PredictX prices Rogers 53%–47% and sygn.trade shows Rogers 46%–43% — thepredictx.com, sygn.trade

All 10 sources

Source	Favors	Rogers	El-Sayed	Margin note	Published

Evidence: 10 Election-Day or immediately pre-election snapshots of the 2026 Michigan Senate race (Rogers vs. El-Sayed), one row per independent host, published Nov 2–3, 2026. Values are each source’s cited poll shares, implied probabilities, or market contract prices — forecasts of the outcome, not vote results. Full article titles cut for space; follow each link for context.

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