Of 77 mineral-stage cells, only 21 are verified: global totals exist upstream, almost nothing numeric for policy caps or substitution

Asked (summary):

For each of eleven minerals — cobalt, lithium, graphite, rare earths, nickel, manganese, tin, tungsten, zinc, copper and uranium — which free public source gives mine production, reserves, trade, refining, policy cap, end use and substitution, and for each stage, is the number a world total with a denominator, a US-only figure, a secondary estimate, or not published at all, with one example source per mineral and stage where one exists?

The requested universe is 11 minerals × 7 stages = 77 cells. A conservative, deduplicated verification pass resolved 21 cells — all seven stages for cobalt, copper and uranium — drawn from 168 structured audit rows over USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries chapters and the OECD-NEA/IAEA Uranium 2024 Red Book, across seven independent hosts with no single URL backing more than a third of the verified rows. The remaining 56 cells are shown as unresolved: web extraction was incomplete there, and absence was not proven.

World total with denominator US only figure Secondary estimate Not published (audited absence) Unresolved — not proven absent

USGS MCS 2025 Table 5 gives cobalt mine production as a true world total — 290,000 t in 2024 with Congo (Kinshasa) at 76% of the denominator — while cobalt trade is only a US net-import-reliance figure (76% of apparent consumption). pubs.usgs.gov

The NEA/IAEA Uranium 2024 Red Book is denominator-backed at three stages: mine production (49,490 tU in 2022, 17 countries), identified recoverable resources (7.93 million tU at <USD 260/kgU) and reactor requirements (59,018 tU), yet publishes no numeric refining, trade, policy-cap or substitution measure. oecdnea.org

Mineral-specific numeric policy caps exist but sit outside the statistical compendia: the DRC set a 96,600 t annual cobalt export ceiling for 2026–27, and US law caps Russian low-enriched uranium imports at 476,536 kg in 2024, falling to 459,083 kg in 2027 before a full ban. govinfo.gov

Substitution is the emptiest column: in every verified mineral the "Substitutes" text is qualitative prose with no quantitative model or outside estimate, so all three verified substitution cells audit as not published. pubs.usgs.gov

Verified cells in detail

Mineral	Stage	Classification	Published measure	Example source	Publisher	Rationale	Link

Method: audit of free public sources for 11 minerals across 7 data stages (77 cells). 21 cells were resolved by a conservative deduplicated verification set (cobalt, copper, uranium; 7 hosts, max 33.3% of rows from one URL), drawn from 168 candidate audit rows on USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries and the OECD-NEA/IAEA Uranium 2024 Red Book, plus 147 source-coverage and 648 policy-cap candidate rows; extraction ran through early 2026. Each cell carries one classification of how the strongest free number is published; the 56 cells not verified are shown as unresolved, not as absent. The verified copper row traces an MCS 2005 excerpt on an academic mirror, hence its audited absences. Candidate rows beyond the verified set were cut for space.

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