California's major pension bill climbs to 5.02% of state spending in 2026‑27 — but 0.87 points of it is a one‑time $3 billion supplemental payment, not ordinary contributions

Asked:

“do you have any more recent data?”

Yes. Official and primary sources now support a recent five-year series, FY 2022-23 through FY 2026-27: state contributions to CalPERS and CalSTRS plus explicit supplemental pension payments, measured against total state-funds spending (federal funds excluded). Pension costs rise from $11.3 billion of a $314 billion budget to $17.4 billion of a $346.6 billion budget.

Pension share of the state-funds budget, 2022-23 to 2026-27

Percent of total state-funds spending · gold = regular CalPERS + CalSTRS contributions · dark blue = total including explicit supplemental pension payments · hover a point for dollar detail

The dollars behind the shares

Billions of dollars · stacked: CalPERS + CalSTRS regular contributions, with supplemental payments on top

The regular pension share moves from 3.60% to 4.15% over five years — a real but gradual climb; the leap to 5.02% in 2026-27 exists only when the one-time $3 billion Proposition 2 supplemental payment is counted. ebudget.ca.gov

2024-25 is the recent low, 3.55% regular share, because CalPERS contributions dipped to $6.9 billion while the revised budget denominator reached $315.5 billion. lao.ca.gov

Supplemental payments scale up fast: $0 in the first two years, then $337 million, $584 million, and $3 billion in 2026-27 — driving the widening gap between the two lines. ebudget.ca.gov

CalSTRS contributions grow steadily each year, from $3.7 billion to $4.8 billion; CalPERS is the volatile side, swinging between $6.9 billion and $9.6 billion. lao.ca.gov

The five-year series, row by row

Fiscal year	Budget ($B)	CalPERS ($B)	CalSTRS ($B)	Regular ($B)	Suppl. ($B)	Total ($B)	Regular %	Incl. suppl. %	Sources

How to read this

“Major state pension costs” covers the two dominant state systems, CalPERS and CalSTRS, plus explicit supplemental pension payments reported by the enacted budget. It excludes retiree health/OPEB and the small Judges’ and Legislators’ systems, so it is not a mathematically exhaustive all-system total.

Total budget means state-funds spending, excluding federal funds. 2022-23 and 2023-24 budget figures are revised/enacted legislative-report figures, with CalPERS required/expected state employer contributions and CalSTRS actuals. 2024-25 and 2025-26 pair the latest revised LAO spending denominators ($315.523B and $336.433B) with enacted pension amounts. 2026-27 is fully enacted ($346.606B).

Five fiscal years, 2022-23 through 2026-27; one row per year. Numerators: state employer contributions to CalPERS and CalSTRS plus explicit supplemental pension payments, from enacted budget summaries, CalPERS actuarial valuations, and LAO EdBudget. Denominators: total state-funds spending from LAO spending-plan overviews and Senate budget reports. Shares are pension cost divided by state-funds budget. Retiree health/OPEB and the Judges’ and Legislators’ systems are excluded for scope; federal funds excluded from the denominator.

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