Two San Mateo 94401 listings compared across three independent listing hosts, plus seven directional comparable sales from January 2025 to August 2026. Prices in US dollars; Cavanaugh’s live price disagrees across feeds ($1.525M–$1.680M), so it is shown as a range, not two homes.
Price vs living area. Green: 1625 Cottage Grove (asking). Blue bar: 430 Cavanaugh, its conflicting live quotes joined as one price range. Gray: sold comparables, unadjusted for condition, flood or timing. Hover or tap a point for details.
430 Cavanaugh St
1625 Cottage Grove Ave
Verdict
Better buy for most owner-occupants — conditional on four gates: legal sq ft & 4-bed use, clean structural/roof/sewer/electrical inspection, binding flood + homeowners insurance at affordable premium, clean title and no water-intrusion history
Better risk-adjusted choice if any Cavanaugh gate fails, or for a smaller household valuing the private garden and lower carrying exposure
Price
$1.525M broker feed; $1.598M on August search pages; $1.680M on Zillow/Redfin/MLS mirrors — verify live MLS before valuing
$1.398M
Space
4 bed / 2 bath, 2,190 sq ft on 5,532 sq ft lot (1949)
3 bed / 2 bath, 1,372 sq ft on 5,250 sq ft lot (1951)
$ per sq ft
$696 at $1.525M; $767 even at $1.680M
$1,019
Climate risk
Redfin model: 10/10 Flood Factor (est. 80%+ chance of flood reaching the building in 30 years), 7/10 Air Factor. Third-party model, not a FEMA determination
No address-specific climate-risk record found — blank is not low risk; both sit in low-lying Shoreview-area neighborhoods
Systems & upgrades
Central forced air; updated kitchen, new flooring and lighting; one-story, 1-car garage. Unusually large footprint — verify permits, additions, bedroom count and sq ft
Concrete slab, wood frame, tar-and-gravel roof, gas wall furnace, no cooling; updated baths, double-pane windows, gated garden, patio, deck, solarium, shed, 1-car attached garage
Schools (per listings)
LEAD Elementary, Bayside Academy, San Mateo High ~0.5 mi
LEAD 0.2 mi, Bayside 0.6 mi, Aragon High 2 mi
Negotiation
Marketed since June 4, 2026 with visible price cuts — buyer leverage; anchor to confirmed MLS status and inspection/insurance findings
Newly listed around August 29, 2026 — less initial leverage
Sources
Cavanaugh’s $696–$767/sq ft sits far below every 2025–26 comp shown — a discount that may be pricing in flood, condition, permit or marketability issues, not a free bargain.
redfin.comCottage Grove is $127K cheaper than Cavanaugh at $1.525M, or $282K cheaper at $1.680M; at 20% down and an illustrative 6.5% 30-year loan, each extra $100K of price is about $506/month in principal and interest before tax and insurance — an illustration, not a live quote.
siliconvalleyrealestateteam.comCottage Grove rented for $4,200/month in 2024 — a rough 3.6% gross yield on $1.398M before vacancy, maintenance, tax and insurance: weak as a pure rental, though the old rent may lag current market.
siliconvalleyrealestateteam.comCalifornia property taxes reset near purchase price; the historical $4,112 and $6,212 tax bills in listing data are not forward estimates for either home.
aegishomesre.com
Unadjusted for condition, flood zone, renovations, micro-location or sale timing — directional context, not an appraisal.
Method: 3 listing records for two San Mateo homes across three independent hosts (no host backs more than half the rows) and 7 extracted comparable sales, Jan 2025–Aug 2026; prices are live asking or recorded sale prices in USD; $/sq ft = price ÷ listed living area; comps are unadjusted; marketing upgrade claims are not verified against invoices or permits; historical tax and rent figures excluded from forward estimates.