Henry Hub gas usually bottoms in March–April and firms into winter — this October selloff runs against the 10-year pattern
Asked:
“what is driving nat gas pricing down. how low will it go?”
Asked (follow-up):
“look at the last 10 years what is the seasonal price movements”
All 120 monthly Henry Hub spot prices across the 10 of 10 complete calendar years 2016–2025, in USD/MMBtu; incomplete 2026 is excluded. Each month is also expressed as a percentage deviation from its own year's average, so the seasonal shape is comparable across cheap and expensive years. The numerical table is single-sourced: transcribed from NatGasChart's presentation of EIA data and cross-checked against the official EIA table and FRED's MHHNGSP series.
The normalized seasonal curve: trough in March–May, strength November–January
Median monthly deviation from each year's own average price (line), with the 10-year min–max range of that deviation (band). Hover a month for detail.
Year by month: 2021–2022 is the outlier, not the pattern
Monthly Henry Hub spot price, USD/MMBtu. Darker is more expensive. Hover a cell for the exact price.
September rose from August in 8 of 10 years — the most reliable positive month-over-month move; February rose from January only 3 of 10 times.
natgaschart.comMedians resist the 2022 shock better than means: August's 10-year mean is $3.36 but its median is $2.86, so the median curve is the better seasonal guide.
eia.govOctober is normally a modestly firm month (+6.4% mean, +1.9% median vs the year's average), so the present decline is contrary to the seasonal tendency — warm forecasts and current fundamentals are overwhelming the usual autumn firming.
fred.stlouisfed.orgSeasonality alone sets no floor: within these 10 years the same calendar months span $1.49 (Mar 2016) to $8.81 (Aug 2022); weather, storage, production and LNG demand dominate in individual years.
natgaschart.com
Seasonal summary, 2016–2025
| Month | Median $ | Mean $ | Min $ | Max $ | Median % vs own year | Mean % vs own year | Rose from prior month | Source |
|---|
Method: Henry Hub monthly spot prices, 120 rows (12 months × 10 complete years, 2016–2025), in dollars per million BTU, monthly and not seasonally adjusted. Prices transcribed from NatGasChart's presentation of EIA data, cross-checked against EIA's official table; FRED series MHHNGSP identifies the same EIA series. Percent deviations compare each month to its own calendar year's average; medians and means are taken across the 10 years. Incomplete 2026 is excluded. Daily data and non-US hubs were cut for space.