Nebius at $170: a stock the street prices anywhere from $84 to $399
Asked (summary):
A current investor research snapshot of Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ: NBIS) — price, fundamentals, catalysts, analyst views and risks.
Built from 55 source-linked rows gathered across many independent hosts, scanned 2026-10-21; the latest observed regular-market quote is $170.24 on 2026-10-20. Covers the market snapshot, Q2 2026 results (syndicated across several hosts, treated as corroboration of one release), and dated catalysts, financing and analyst actions from August through October 2026. All dollar figures are USD.
Price against the 52-week range and analyst targets
Targets are individual analysts' 12-month opinions, not forecasts of certainty. The consensus shown is MarketBeat's displayed aggregate across 21 analysts. Axis in US dollars per share. Hover or tap a marker for detail.
Q2 2026 revenue was $582.3M, up 454% YoY; adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $236.2M while net loss was $190.4M; cash stood at $8.04B against about $8.55B total debt — tradingview.com
Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $3.0–3.4B revenue, $7–9B year-end annualized run-rate revenue (ARR $3.0B at Q2), roughly 40% adjusted EBITDA margin — and $20–25B of capex — tradingkey.com
Market-cap sources disagree: about $43.07B at MarketBeat versus $46.61B at Morningstar on the same $170.24 quote, largely different share-count inputs — marketbeat.com · morningstar.com
Financing in one quarter: a $5.75B convertible-note offering closed Aug 24 (one deal across its proposed, priced and closed stages) plus 12.7M ATM shares for about $2.8B — nebius.com
Bull case vs bear case
Bull case
Roughly $40B committed backlog reported by management, seen as supporting asset-backed financing — qz.com
Four core AI cloud contracts averaging over $1B each; a short-duration premium deal at $40–50M per MW — tradingkey.com
Capacity push: 5 GW year-end contracted-power target, 200 MW Rotterdam anchor lease, 50 MW South Carolina hall — ainvest.com
Palantir partnership for sovereign AI, Inferize acquisition, adjusted EBITDA already positive — nebius.com
Bear case
Execution against immense $20–25B capex while net loss runs $190.4M a quarter — ainvest.com
Leverage and dilution: about $8.55B debt, $5.75B new converts, 12.7M ATM shares — nebius.com
Redburn's Sell/$84: falling GPU rental prices, hyperscaler self-build and expensive financing could crush returns — baseballnewssource.com
Demonstrated volatility: a $73.52–$299.86 trailing range, 10–12% single-day drops on insider selling and sector debt scares — tickerreport.com
Catalyst and financing timeline
Tagged by source type: official = Nebius release or company statement; reported = third-party coverage.
All 55 source rows
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This page is research aggregation, not investment advice. Analyst targets are opinions and may not be achieved.
55 source-linked rows on Nebius Group (NBIS) scanned 2026-10-21 across many independent hosts (no host supplies more than 7.3% of rows); latest market quote 2026-10-20. Dollar values are USD; revenue, EBITDA and loss are Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30); the 52-week range is trailing. The Q2 release is syndicated across hosts and counted as one event. The staged convertible-note rows describe one $5.75B transaction. Some long facts are shortened in the table; full detail at each source link.